How much weight should I expect to lose, and how fast?

We're surrounded by promises of rapid results: a stone in a month, a dress size in a fortnight. So when the scales move more slowly, it's easy to feel that something is going wrong, or that it isn't worth carrying on.

In reality, the NHS and NICE suggest that a safe, sustainable rate of weight loss for most people is around 0.5 to 1 kilogram (roughly one to two pounds) a week. That might sound modest, but steady progress at this pace is far more likely to last than dramatic losses that are impossible to keep up.

Even when you're doing everything right, your weight will go up and down from day to day and week to week. Fluid, hormones, salt, sleep and even the time of day you weigh yourself can all make a difference. A week where the scales don't move, or even creep up, doesn't mean you've failed.

Learning to read the overall trend, rather than reacting to each individual number, is one of the most important skills you can develop, and it's one we spend time on early in the programme.

It can be tempting to aim for the fastest possible loss, especially if you have an important event coming up or you've been frustrated for a long time. But rapid weight loss usually depends on very restrictive eating, which is difficult to keep up and can leave you tired, irritable and preoccupied with food.

When the restriction ends, as it almost always does, the weight often returns, sometimes with a little extra. Slower progress, built on changes you can actually live with, gives your body and your habits time to adjust. It's less exciting in the short term, but far more rewarding in the long run.

Many people have a complicated relationship with their scales. Some weigh themselves several times a day and let the number decide their mood. Others avoid the scales completely because they dread what they'll see. Neither extreme tends to help.

Tracking progress can be a useful tool when it's done in a way that gives you information rather than judgement. Week 1 of the programme looks at practical, balanced ways of monitoring your progress, including measures that have nothing to do with weight at all.

Picture two people starting a weight loss journey on the same day. The first follows a very strict plan and loses a lot of weight in the first month. But it's exhausting, social life is on hold, and by month three the plan has collapsed and most of the weight has returned.

The second makes a handful of small, manageable changes. Progress is slower, perhaps a pound or so most weeks, with a few weeks where nothing seems to happen at all. But a year later, those changes have become part of everyday life, and the weight has stayed off. On paper, the first person was more successful at the start. In reality, the second person is the one who changed their life.

Week 1 of the programme is about helping you become the second person.

Here's something many people don't realise: you don't need to reach a "goal weight" to improve your health. Losing just 5% of your body weight, for most people around 4 to 6 kilograms, can bring meaningful improvements in blood pressure, blood sugar control and other markers of health.

That's a far more achievable starting point than a dramatic target, and it helps shift the focus from where you think you should be to the progress you're genuinely making.

The scales only tell part of the story. Many people notice other changes long before the numbers move much at all: more energy, better sleep, clothes fitting differently, feeling more confident, or realising that the people around them, often children, are picking up healthier habits too.

Recognising these as real markers of progress keeps motivation going during the weeks when the scales are being stubborn.

You might benefit from this part of the programme if you recognise any of the following:

• You feel disappointed after a week of good choices because the scales only moved a little
• You've given up on previous plans because progress felt too slow
• You set yourself a goal weight that feels a very long way off
• You only count success in kilograms or pounds
• A single bad weigh-in can knock your motivation for days

It might seem strange that a weight management programme doesn't start with food. But expectations shape everything that follows. If you start out expecting rapid, steady progress, every plateau feels like failure. If you start out understanding what real progress looks like, those same moments become a normal part of the journey, and you're much more likely to keep going. That's why Week 1 lays the foundations for the whole programme.

One of the most valuable things you can do at the start of any weight loss journey is decide what success really means for you. For some people, it's being able to play with their children or grandchildren without getting out of breath. For others, it's coming off a medication, feeling confident in photographs, or simply feeling more in control around food.

When success is defined only by a number on the scales, it's easy to feel that you're failing for most of the journey. When it's defined by the things that genuinely matter to you, you can start noticing wins from the very first week. The programme helps you build your own definition of success, and keep coming back to it.

Changes you make don't only affect you. Children notice what the adults around them eat, how they talk about their bodies, and whether they're active. Partners and friends often start to pick up new habits too. Many people find that one of the most motivating parts of their journey is realising the positive influence they're having on the people they love. It's something we explore in the final session of Week 1.

Understanding Weight Loss is one of 12 weekly courses in the Raiys Weight Management Programme. Each course is broken down into short sessions of around five minutes, one for each day of the week, so you can fit them around work, family and everything else. Each session ends with a short reflection, something to think about, and a simple action, something to try that day.

You can work through the programme in order, building each week on the last, or, if understanding weight loss is the area you most want to work on, you can go straight to it. Either way, the sessions are designed to be used alongside the BeChange app, which helps you put what you learn into practice in everyday life.

In Week 1 of the programme, you'll learn:

• How to set realistic expectations that keep you going rather than setting you up to quit
• What successful weight loss really looks like, and how to define it for yourself
• Why small losses matter more than you think
• Simple ways to track progress without becoming a slave to the scales
• How to recognise the "beyond the scales" wins: energy, confidence, and being a role model for others

What if I want to lose weight faster?

Some people do lose more quickly at the start, which is normal. But for most people, a steady rate is safer and easier to maintain. If you have specific medical needs, speak to your GP.

Do I have to weigh myself?

Not necessarily. The programme explores a range of ways to track progress, so you can find the approach that works best for you.

What if I have a lot of weight to lose?

Even a modest loss can make a real difference to your health, so the programme encourages you to focus on the first meaningful step rather than the whole distance at once.

The Raiys Weight Management Programme is a 12-week, clinician-led digital programme designed to be used alongside the BeChange app. Each week focuses on one course, broken into short five-minute daily sessions, each with a reflection and a simple action to take into your day. It's built on current NICE and SIGN guidance and on proven behaviour-change approaches, and it's written to support you, never to judge you.

This article is for general information only and is not a substitute for personal medical advice. If you have a health condition, take regular medication, are pregnant, or have concerns about your weight or eating, please speak to your GP or healthcare professional before making significant changes. If you have had, or are preparing for, weight loss surgery, please follow the advice of your specialist team.

Dr Laura Coia is a GP Partner in NHS Scotland with over 25 years of clinical experience, and Co-founder and Medical Director of Raiys Digital Health.

Dr Izzy Howat is a Consultant Endocrinologist and NHS Weight Management Specialist, and Weight Management Lead at Raiys Digital Health. She is the author of the Raiys Weight Management Programme.

• National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) (2025). Overweight and obesity management (NG246). London: NICE. (Replaces CG189.)
• Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network (SIGN) (2010). Management of obesity (SIGN 115). Edinburgh: SIGN. (Some recommendations may since have been superseded; read alongside NICE NG246.)
• Jensen MD, Ryan DH, et al. (2013). 2013 AHA/ACC/TOS Guideline for the Management of Overweight and Obesity in Adults. Circulation, 129(25 Suppl 2), S102–S138. Co-sponsored by The Obesity Society.
• National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) (2014). Behaviour change: individual approaches (PH49). London: NICE.
• NHS. The Eatwell Guide; and How to lose weight safely. nhs.uk
• Cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) evidence base for weight-related thinking patterns, consistent with NICE's approach to individual behaviour change (PH49).
• British Obesity & Metabolic Surgery Society (BOMSS). Clinical guidance for patients undergoing bariatric surgery. Relevant only to readers who have had, or are preparing for, weight loss surgery; this programme is a non-surgical behavioural programme.